Know before the
recession hits
9 critical economic indicators analyzed daily and delivered to your phone. From the Sahm Rule to yield curves — stay ahead of the market.
Data sourced from trusted institutions
Every signal that matters.
Nothing that doesn't.
We distill the noise of economic data into clear, actionable signals. Backed by the indicators that have correctly predicted every recession since 1970.
Sahm Rule Monitoring
The single best real-time recession indicator. We track the 3-month moving average of unemployment against the cycle low.
Yield Curve Analysis
2s10s and 2s30s spreads tracked daily. Inversions have preceded every recession since 1955 with only one false signal.
Conference Board LEI
The 3Ds rule: diffusion, depth, and duration. When all three trigger simultaneously, recession probability spikes to 85%+.
Liquidity Monitoring
ON RRP facility, M2 money supply, and credit spreads. When the liquidity buffer is gone, markets become fragile.
Stock Screener (Pro)
Daily scan for stocks below 200 EMA with RSI <30 and P/E <15. Value dividend picks with P/E <12 near support.
Daily SMS Briefing
Concise, actionable morning briefings delivered via SMS. No noise, no fluff — just the signals that matter.
Threshold Alerts
Instant notification when any indicator crosses a critical threshold. Know the moment the Sahm Rule triggers.
Historical Context
Every reading comes with historical context. Know where we are relative to past recessions and recoveries.
Real-time Dashboard
All indicators at a glance. Clean, financial-terminal aesthetic designed for quick daily check-ins.
Current recession signals
Live data from FRED, Treasury, and financial APIs — updated daily.
Subscribe to unlock all indicator values, signals, and daily SMS alerts.
Your morning briefing
Every morning at 8 AM ET, you get a concise SMS with the indicators that matter. No apps to open. No newsletters to skim. Just the pulse of the economy, in your pocket.
⚠️ RECESSION PULSE Feb 22 ⚠️ ALERTS: ⚠️ Conf. Board LEI: -0.3% → 3Ds Rule TRIGGERED since Aug '25 ⚠️ ON RRP: ~$80B → 97% depleted, no buffer ⚠️ DXY: ~96 → 5-year lows, dollar weak 👀 WATCHING: 🟡 Yield Curve 2s10s: +70 bps 🟡 JPM Recession Prob: 35% ✅ 2 indicators safe Score: 2✅ 4🟡 3🔴 📊 recessionpulse.com/dashboard
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Frequently asked questions
Everything you need to know about recession indicators and RecessionPulse.
The Sahm Rule identifies recessions when the 3-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises 0.50 percentage points or more above its low from the previous 12 months. Created by economist Claudia Sahm, it has correctly signaled every recession since 1970 in real time. RecessionPulse tracks this indicator daily.
Yield curve inversion occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates. The 2-year/10-year Treasury spread inverting has preceded every US recession since 1955, with only one false signal. Historically, recessions follow 6–18 months after un-inversion (when the curve steepens back to normal). RecessionPulse tracks both the 2s10s and 2s30s spreads.
The 3Ds Rule evaluates three conditions in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Depth (6-month growth rate below -4.3%), Diffusion (more than half of components declining), and Duration (sustained decline over multiple months). When all three trigger simultaneously, historical recession probability exceeds 85%.
The Overnight Reverse Repo (ON RRP) Facility is the Federal Reserve's mechanism for absorbing excess liquidity from the financial system. When ON RRP balances decline sharply, it signals that the liquidity buffer in the financial system is thinning. Near-zero levels mean banks and money-market funds have less margin of safety during market stress.
RecessionPulse monitors key recession indicators daily including: the Sahm Rule, Yield Curve spreads (2s10s and 2s30s), Conference Board LEI, ON RRP Facility levels, DXY Dollar Index, Emerging Market performance, JPMorgan recession probability, GDP growth forecasts, credit spreads, ISM Manufacturing PMI, bank unrealized losses, US interest expense, and M2 money supply.
RecessionPulse offers two plans: Pulse at $9.99/month (daily SMS and email alerts with all recession indicators) and Pulse Pro at $14.99/month (adds daily stock screener alerts for stocks below 200 EMA with RSI <30 and P/E <15). Cancel anytime. No contracts.
No. RecessionPulse is strictly an informational service. We aggregate publicly available economic data and present it in a clear format. Nothing we provide constitutes investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Don't get caught off guard.
Every recession in the last 50 years was preceded by the exact indicators we track. The question isn't if the next one is coming — it's when. Be the one who sees it first.
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